India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty is likely to have serious effects on Pakistan. The Indus River System Authority (IRSA) has reported a sharp drop in River Chenab’s inflows at Marala. This reduction is attributed to limited water supply from India. As a result, Pakistan may face a 21% water shortage during the early Kharif season.
The water level in the Chenab River dropped significantly in Jammu and Kashmir’s Akhnoor after the closure of gates at the Baglihar and Salal Dams. This led to the IRSA Advisory Committee holding a meeting to approve the Anticipated Water Availability Criteria for the remaining Kharif period, from May to September 2025.
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IRSA Warns of 21% Water Shortage in Early Kharif Season
The “Indus River System Authority Advisory Committee (IAC) reviewed the water situation for the remaining months of the “Early Kharif” (May – Jun 10) and Late Kharif (Jun 11 – Sep) seasons. It was noted with concern unanimously that a sudden decrease in river Chenab inflows at Marala due to a short supply by India would result in more shortages in the early Kharif season,” the Indus River System Authority (IRSA) stated in a press release.
“IAC declared an overall shortage of 21 per cent for the remaining early Kharif season in case supplies in the River Chenab remain normal. The team will monitor the situation daily, and if the decrease in River Chenab continues, they will reassess the shortages accordingly. They expect the Late Kharif shortages to be 7 percent.
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India Suspends Indus Waters Treaty, Threatening Water Supply to Pakistan
Pakistan may face a significant water shortage during the Kharif season, given India’s reduced water supplies.
The Indus Water Treaty (IWT) allocates the Western Rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) to Pakistan and the Eastern Rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) to India. The treaty also allows each country certain uses of the rivers allocated to the other. India just gets 20% of the water from the Indus River System, while the rest 80% goes to Pakistan.
India has put the Indus River treaty in abeyance following the Pahalgam terror attack on April 22 at Baisaran meadow, where terrorists targeted tourists, killing 25 Indian nationals and one Nepalese citizen and leaving several others injured.
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