Exit polls predict that the BJP will break into Mamata Banerjee’s stronghold in West Bengal after 15 years, secure a historic win there, and achieve a third consecutive term in Assam. They also suggest that the Congress-led United Democratic Front will return to power in Kerala, while the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) is likely to overcome anti-incumbency and retain Tamil Nadu.
Exit Poll 2026: Predicts BJP gains in West Bengal and Assam, UDF comeback in Kerala
Exit polls show that in West Bengal, most agencies predict the BJP will secure a narrow majority in the 294-member assembly, defeating the Trinamool Congress (TMC), although two major polling agencies did not release projections amid record voter turnout driven by large-scale deletions under the special intensive revision (SIR).
In Tamil Nadu, nearly all exit polls forecast a majority for the DMK-led alliance in the 234-member assembly, while AxisMyIndia projects that actor-turned-politician Vijay could surpass both Dravidian parties to emerge as the single-largest party, and possibly even secure a majority, as the state appears headed for a rare three-way contest amid the near collapse of the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK).
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Exit polls 2026: How Accurate Are Their Predictions?
Exit polls suggest they are not always accurate. They have often misread election results in past contests, especially in regions with diverse caste and community dynamics. In 2021, most exit polls wrongly predicted the result in West Bengal, where the Trinamool Congress (TMC) won a landslide victory. Similar errors also appeared in the 2024 general elections.
The latest exit polls come after a high-intensity campaign across five regions. Key issues included development, identity politics, voter deletions under the Special Intensive Revision (SIR), and local anti-incumbency.
Among the five states, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala have never had a BJP-led government. These states remain key targets for the party. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA), currently in power in Assam, is seeking a third straight term there. It is also aiming to retain Puducherry for a second term.
The elections also test several major regional leaders. Mamata Banerjee seeks a fourth term in West Bengal. MK Stalin aims for a second term in Tamil Nadu. Pinarayi Vijayan is also seeking a third consecutive term in Kerala.
In Assam, exit polls show strong agreement. They predict a big win for Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma. He is expected to secure a second consecutive term in the 126-member assembly. The Congress remains far behind. The campaign in Assam stayed highly polarised. Migration and identity issues dominated. Sarma also focused on Bengali-speaking Muslim communities, often called Miyas.
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