India may receive below-normal monsoon rainfall this year, according to the latest forecast released by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The weather department said the country is likely to receive only 90 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall during the southwest monsoon season. Earlier in April, the IMD had predicted 92 per cent rainfall, but the latest estimate shows a further decline.
The IMD said weak El Nino conditions are likely to develop in June. Officials added that these conditions may become stronger during the second half of the monsoon season. El Nino often affects rainfall patterns and can reduce monsoon activity across India.
According to the IMD, the possibility of below-normal rainfall has increased this year. The department also mentioned a model error margin of plus or minus four per cent in the latest forecast.
In addition, isolated parts of Maharashtra, Telangana, Himachal Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu may also face intense heat. Experts believe lower rainfall and rising temperatures could affect agriculture, water supply, and daily life in several regions.
Also Read: Klaasen, Ishan Reach Major Batting Milestone in IPL 2026
Officials said farmers and local administrations should remain prepared for changing weather conditions during the season. The IMD continues to monitor weather patterns closely and may release updated forecasts in the coming weeks.
Monsoon Concerns Grow Amid Low Rainfall Forecast
The IMD had earlier predicted a below-normal monsoon in its April forecast. At that time, the department estimated rainfall at 92 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a margin of error of plus or minus five per cent. The latest forecast now shows a further drop in expected rainfall levels.
According to the IMD, many parts of the country may receive below-normal rainfall this season. However, some regions in northeast India, northwest India, and south peninsular India may still receive normal or above-normal rainfall.
Experts believe weak monsoon rainfall could create challenges for India’s agriculture sector. A large part of India’s farming depends on rainwater. Government data shows that nearly 51 per cent of India’s farmed land depends on rainfall. Around 40 per cent of total farm production also comes from rain-fed areas.
Officials said poor rainfall could affect crop production and increase pressure on rural incomes. Lower agricultural output may also push food prices higher in the coming months. Rising global tensions in West Asia have already increased concerns over fuel prices and fertiliser supplies.
Also Read: Authorities Seal Varanasi Goat Market After Hygiene Dispute