Iran-related tensions have led the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to cut its global growth forecast for 2026 from 3.3% to 3.1%. The US-Israel conflict with Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz triggered this downgrade. These disruptions have hit global trade hard, especially energy supplies like oil and gas. If the conflict continues, global growth could drop further to 2.5%. Developing countries may face the worst impact.
The war has damaged key energy infrastructure across the Gulf region. As a result, commodity and energy prices have surged. At the same time, global shipping and logistics are under pressure. Supply chains are slowing down. Despite these challenges, some industries are gaining from the uncertainty.
Wall Street banks are benefiting from increased market volatility. Investors are trading more frequently, which boosts bank revenues. Firms like Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and JP Morgan have reported strong profits. Higher trading volumes and deal-making drive this growth. However, experts warn that prolonged instability could reduce investor confidence.
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Iran War Shakes Global Economy, But Some Industries See Major Gains
The defence and aerospace sectors are also growing rapidly. Countries are increasing military spending, which raises demand for weapons and equipment. At the same time, the artificial intelligence sector continues to expand. Strong semiconductor exports support this growth. Major AI companies are also planning public listings.
Renewable energy is gaining momentum worldwide. Countries want to reduce dependence on fossil fuels and improve energy security. Governments are introducing policies to support clean energy. Many are investing in solar, wind, and other alternatives. This shift has boosted the renewable sector and improved its market performance.
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